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Review: Last week's Nikkei index closed at 9202, down 224 points from the prior week. The high of the week was 9460 on Monday, and the low was on Friday at 9179. The close was below weekly support, which is bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is downgraded to trend run down.

Cycles: My bias remains that this is the 9th week of a newer 13-19 week primary cycle, following the 8796 low of September 1. It also starts the 9th week of the first 7-11 week half-primary cycle, and the 4th week of the second 4-6 week major cycle phase of this "combination pattern" primary cycle. If this labeling is correct, then both the half-primary cycle trough and the second 4-6 week major cycle trough of this primary cycle is due to be completed anytime before November 19. Once that low is in, we look for a strong rally into the crest of the second half-primary cycle.

If this decline takes prices below the 8796 of September 1, it may mean one of two things. It may mean this primary cycle, as identified, is going to be bearish. The rally that follows will only be corrective, followed by a lower low at the end of the next half-primary cycle. That low would be 7-11 weeks after the current half-primary bottom is completed. Or it may mean that this is 17th week of an older primary cycle, dating back to the 9378 low of July 6. In that case, the primary bottom is also due by November 19 (unless it expands). It would also mean that the longer-term 18-month cycle trough did not occur September 1, but is unfolding with this decline.

Longer-term, my bias is still that this also starts the 9th week of a new 18-month cycle. But, as stated previously, "The alternate bearish outlook on the longer-term cycle still remains possible as well. (That is)… failure to exceed 9807 will keep open the possibility that the 18-month cycle trough was not completed on September 1. In that case, this would start the 11th week (now 17th) of this final 13-19 week primary cycle, and 3rd week (now 9th) of the second 7-11 week half-primary cycle. (upon completion of) the half-primary cycle crest, a powerful 3-8 week decline to the primary and 18-month cycle lows, probably well below 8796 (would follow)."

Geocosmics: The Nikkei continues to fall lower and lower following its 9716 high of Thursday, October 7. That can be confirmed as at least a half-primary cycle crest, and it was only one day before the powerful Level One signature known as Venus retrograde on October 8. There are many instances in the past where a market made a primary cycle low or high on Venus retrograde, and then a counter-trend move that lasted until the time it turned back direct. Venus will go direct November 18, which is right at the end of the time band when all the above-mentioned cycles are due.

There are no major geocosmic signatures unfolding this week. The next one is Saturday, November 6, when Neptune turns direct. That also coincides with a new moon. However, that by itself is not a very powerful correlate to reversals in stock markets. The next geocosmic cluster zone begins November 15 and lasts through November 19. That is apt to be more powerful.

Last week's report stated, "The only geocosmic signature of note coming up this week is Mars moving out of Scorpio and into Sagittarius on Thursday, October 28. That could be explosive for stocks around the world, and I would guess to the upside. It will remain in Sagittarius until December 7. The next critical reversal date is November 17, one day before Venus and Jupiter turn direct." At this point we cannot tell if the Nov 17th period will be a major, half-primary, and/or primary cycle trough, or a rally that ends a major and perhaps half-primary cycle crest. Either is possible, but technical studies (below) may help us to determine.

Price Objectives and Patterns: Previously we had stated, "The preferred cycles' picture is that this is a new 18-month cycle, based on the break above critical resistance the week ending September 17. In this outlook, we anticipate the Nikkei will now challenge and maybe even surpass its yearly high of 11,408 in the next 6-9 months. If it surpasses it, the MCP (Mid-Cycle Pause) price objective becomes 13,183 +/- 727. However, this bias is not yet confirmed (see below), and until it is, there remains a possibility that another decline is about to begin, which could still take the Nikkei down to a primary cycle trough price target of either 8222 +/- 376 or 8648 +/- 190 as given before. We note the latter price was fulfilled with the low of September 1, so the Nikkei doesn't have to fall to the lower level."

The corrective price decline for the 7-11 week half-primary cycle trough is 8934-9303. We fell to 9179 on Friday, which is now right in the middle of our ideal price range. In the event that this is still an older primary cycle (17th week), this decline could break below 8796, falling as low as 8261 +/- 235. But a close above weekly resistance would virtually guarantee that the half-primary cycle trough just unfolded.

The 25-day moving average starts this week at 9464 and falling. A close back above would confirm that the half-primary cycle trough is completed. The 24-week moving average starts this week at 9526 and falling. It still couldn't close above it. Thus we still cannot confirm the 18-month cycle trough is in. Two consecutive weekly closes above this average is a confirmation signal that the 18-month cycle trough has been completed.

The 15-day slow stochastics are still down and now in oversold territory. They start this week with D at 10.98% and below K at 14.61%. We need to start looking for bullish patterns here as a signal to get long. The 8-week stochastics are now turning down. They start this week with D at 60.10% and now below K at 71.22%. As stated last week, "If they "roll over," with D falling much below K we will probably see a sharper decline." It has started.

Technical Support and Resistance: Weekly support is now 9123-9142, 9041-9101, 8944, and 8783. A weekly close below 9061 is bearish. A trade below and a weekly close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 9281-9325, 9343-9383, and 9604. A weekly close above 9383 is bullish, and would create a bullish sequence. But a trade above resistance and close back below is a bearish trigger. The weekly trend indicator point is now at 9411. A close above here this week would upgrade this indicator back to neutral.

Prices closed below a bullish crossover zone at 9367-9407. Another remains in effect at 8123-8167. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 10,101-10,324, 10,660-10,892, 11,500-11,700, 12,600-12,861, 14,223-14,252, 14,998-15,148, 16,029-16,373 and 17,695-18,005.

Strategy for this week: Position traders are still long with a stop-loss on a close below 8796.

Aggressive traders are also long with a stop-loss below 8796. If stopped out, then we will look to buy again around November 17, as the 18-mlonth cycle either bottomed September 1, or is bottoming shortly. Both possibilities imply a strong rally to follow this current decline, which is due for a bottom anytime before November 19.


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